Research Summary - 2
How much milk would it take? Estimating the improvement in lactating herd performance needed to offset the cost of raising additional replacement opportunities
| Date/Time: |
9/12/2025
15:30
|
| Author: |
Julie Adamchick |
| Clinic: |
Cornell University |
| City, State, ZIP: |
Ithaca, NY 14853 |
J. S. Adamchick, DVM, PhD
1
;
K. R. Briggs, DVM, MBA
2
;
D. V. Nydam , DVM, PhD
1
;
1Public and Ecosystem Health, Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine, Ithaca, NY 14853
2fairlife, Chicago, IL 60607
Introduction:
Dairy farms can
meet their baseline replacement needs and have surplus calves. One source of
value from surplus calves is to sell crossbred beef calves; another is to build
flexibility into the herd’s replacement decisions by raising more dairy females
(additional replacement opportunities (AROs)) above baseline
requirements. ARO costs include raising the additional animal and the
opportunity cost of not having produced and sold a crossbred beef calf. AROs
can then either replace a cow whose slot would improve if occupied by an
average replacement or be sold as a surplus springer.
Our
objective was to estimate a) the required annual increase in milk production to
offset the cost of producing and raising the AROs if used as replacements, and
b) the “flexibility premium” (percent increase in net youngstock cost above
baseline) of having the AROs available if instead sold as surplus springers.
Materials and methods:
We estimated
breedings to sexed semen needed to support a specified herd size and
replacement rate (RR), and the number of day-old crossbred calves if all
remaining breedings were to beef semen under baseline conditions or while
creating the dairy females to support an additional 5-20 percentage points of
annual RR. All scenarios had otherwise identical inputs for non-completion and
reproductive parameters. The annual net cash flow for youngstock was estimated
under each scenario and accounted for calf sales, raising costs, and revenues
from either market cows or surplus springers. The difference between the
baseline and comparison scenario was calculated for each and used to estimate the
annual milk production increase that would offset ARO costs and the flexibility
premium for AROs sold as springers. Costs by stage and revenue from milk and
animal sales were discounted at 5% annually relative to day-old calves. AROs up
to 30% above the baseline youngstock population cost a discounted rate
representing variable costs only; all others were same cost/hd/d as the average
baseline animal. The cost to raise a replacement heifer to 24 months was
$3.05/d ($2,233) and each additional (marginal) heifer was $1.79/d ($1309). The
price per head for animals sold was $400 (dairy bull calves), $750 (beef cross
calves), $2300 (springers), and $1200 (market cows). Milk price was $22/cwt and
lactating feed cost $0.14/lb DM. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the impact on
results when select inputs were varied by +/-20% of their default values.
Results:
Increased
milk production of 0.28 lbs per lactating cow slot per day was needed to offset
the ARO cost for each additional percentage point of turnover as long as all
AROs were marginal (not exceeding 30% of the baseline heifer population in our model).
This represented an increase of 1.4 lbs/slot/d for a 5-pt increase in annual RR
(to move from 25 to 30RR or 40 to 45RR – e.g., 150 AROs for a 3,000-cow herd).
For more AROs, the milk offset increased more steeply for low baseline herds. If
all AROs were sold as surplus springers, the “flexibility premium” for an
additional 5 pts of AROs ranged from 1% (45RR) to 9% (25RR) of baseline net
youngstock costs. An additional 20 pts of AROs cost a premium of 5% (45RR) to
114% (25RR).
Varying the
cost of feed or price of milk, crossbred calves, or market cows by +/- 20% of
their default values caused the break-even milk production to range from 0.2 to
0.4 lbs/lact cow slot/d per additional point of turnover while AROs did not exceed
marginal capacity.
Significance:
Because breeding choices must be made 3 years in advance of when replacements created will enter the herd, semen and replacement strategies should weigh the opportunity cost of not selling crossbred beef against the flexibility and potential revenue created by having additional replacement opportunities. Under these model dairy conditions, for a 3,000 cow herd the net difference from baseline to raise the additional replacements for a 10-pt increase in RR is approximately $350K/year.
